October 23, 2026 | TickerRoast Markets Analysis
A little more than a year ago, Oracle’s AI-fueled rally briefly put co-founder Larry Ellison within reach of the title of world’s richest person. Since then, the stock has lost about 62% of its value, and his fortune has fallen by roughly $194 billion. The decline reflects a broader question facing investors: how much the AI infrastructure boom will cost before it pays off.
From Record High to a 62% Decline
Oracle closed at a record $328.33 on September 10, 2025, according to DaveManuel.com, which tracks Ellison’s holdings. Based on Yahoo Finance data, the stock closed at $125.54 on October 22, 2026, about 62% below that peak. It was down about 55% over twelve months and about 35% since the start of 2026, compared with a gain of roughly 13% for the S&P 500 over the past year.
The decline has erased a large share of the company’s market value. Business Honor reported that Oracle’s market capitalization fell from about $875 billion to $387 billion, a loss of about $488 billion.
What It Means for Larry Ellison’s Fortune
Because most of his wealth is tied to Oracle shares, Ellison’s net worth has followed the stock closely. At the September 10, 2025 close, the Bloomberg Billionaires Index valued his fortune at $383.2 billion, just behind Elon Musk, according to DaveManuel.com. The same source puts his net worth at about $178 billion on Bloomberg’s index as of October 16, 2026, a decline of about $194 billion in a year, and at $169.1 billion on Forbes’ real-time list as of October 19. Both rankings place him eighth in the world.
| Indicator | Figure | Date / source |
|---|---|---|
| Oracle record close | $328.33 | Sept. 10, 2025 (DaveManuel.com) |
| Oracle close | $125.54 | Oct. 22, 2026 (Yahoo Finance data) |
| Ellison’s net worth at the peak | $383.2B | Sept. 10, 2025 (Bloomberg, via DaveManuel.com) |
| Ellison’s net worth now | $169B to $178B | Oct. 16–19, 2026 (Forbes, Bloomberg) |
| Ellison’s Oracle stake | About 1.158 billion shares (~38%) | Oracle proxy and 10-Q, via DaveManuel.com |
| Value of that stake | About $145B | Our calculation at the Oct. 22 close |
Figures differ between wealth trackers because they use different methods and valuation dates. DaveManuel.com also notes that published estimates do not deduct undisclosed personal loans. According to the same source, about 413 million of Ellison’s Oracle shares are pledged as collateral for personal loans, as disclosed in company filings, and a plan he set up in June 2026 to sell up to 50 million shares was cancelled on September 12 without any shares being sold.
Why Oracle Shares Have Fallen
The slide is not explained by weak sales. Oracle’s business is growing quickly. The concern is the cost of that growth and how it is being financed.
- Very heavy investment. Capital expenditures topped $21 billion in fiscal 2026, up from about $7 billion a year earlier, as Oracle built data centers for AI customers, according to The Motley Fool.
- Negative free cash flow. Capital spending has exceeded the cash generated by operations. A GuruFocus summary of the latest earnings call put free cash flow at about negative $5 billion, with no timeframe given for a return to positive territory.
- Rising debt. Oracle’s debt reportedly climbed to about $169 billion from $88 billion early last year, according to Business Honor, at a time of higher borrowing costs.
- Credit rating pressure. S&P Global Ratings downgraded Oracle to BBB-, one notch above speculative grade, according to The Motley Fool.
- Customer concentration and AI doubts. Business Honor cited investor concerns about Oracle’s exposure to OpenAI and about whether AI infrastructure spending will pay off quickly enough, a debate that has weighed on many AI-related stocks.
The Other Side: Growth Remains Strong
Oracle’s latest results, for the first quarter of fiscal 2027 released on September 10, 2026, showed strong momentum. According to GuruFocus, total revenue rose 30% to $19.3 billion and Oracle Cloud Infrastructure revenue jumped 121% to $7.4 billion. Business Honor reported remaining performance obligations, a measure of contracted future revenue, of $664 billion. Management guided for fiscal 2027 revenue of at least $90 billion, according to GuruFocus.
In our view, this is the core of the debate. Oracle has signed an exceptional volume of contracts, but converting them into profits requires years of large upfront investment, financed partly with debt. Investors appear to be applying a lower value to that future revenue until there is clearer evidence of returns and cash generation.
Technical Picture
Based on Yahoo Finance data, Oracle traded below its 20-day, 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages, at roughly $136, $143 and $159 respectively, with a 14-day RSI near 40. The stock remained above its 52-week low of $114.50, reached in July 2026. Technical indicators describe past price behavior and do not predict future moves.
Key Risks
- Financing: continued high capital spending could require further borrowing, with possible pressure on the credit rating.
- Execution: Oracle has acknowledged possible delays at some data-center sites, although management said they will not affect fiscal 2027 guidance, according to GuruFocus.
- Margins: gross margin has declined as the business shifts toward infrastructure, and management expects some further pressure.
- Customer concentration: large AI contracts depend on a small number of customers.
- Sentiment toward AI spending: broader doubts about AI returns can affect the stock regardless of company results.
What Investors Will Watch Next
- Oracle’s second-quarter fiscal 2027 results and progress toward its guidance.
- The trajectory of free cash flow and capital spending.
- Debt levels, financing arrangements and any rating agency actions.
- The conversion of contracted backlog into recognized revenue.
- Any change in Ellison’s holdings, which would be disclosed in regulatory filings.
Conclusion
The fall in Larry Ellison’s fortune mirrors the market’s reassessment of Oracle: a company with rapidly growing cloud revenue and a record backlog, but also with heavy spending, rising debt and negative free cash flow. Whether the stock’s decline proves temporary or lasting will depend on Oracle’s ability to show that its AI investments generate sustainable returns, an outcome that remains uncertain.
Sources
- Larry Ellison Net Worth 2026 — DaveManuel.com
- Oracle’s $488 Billion Wipeout Hits Larry Ellison’s Fortune as AI Fears Grow — Business Honor
- Oracle’s Stock Crash Has Cost Larry Ellison $213 Billion in 10 Months — The Motley Fool, via Yahoo Finance
- Oracle Corp (ORCL) Q1 2027 Earnings Call Highlights — GuruFocus, via Yahoo Finance
Market data: Yahoo Finance, close of 2026-10-23.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only. It provides general financial and business analysis and does not constitute investment advice, a personal recommendation, a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security, or an offer to transact in any financial instrument. Information is based on publicly available sources as of October 23, 2026 and market data as of the 2026-10-23 close (Yahoo Finance). Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results; forecasts are uncertain and actual results may differ materially. Investing in shares involves risk, including the loss of capital. The publisher does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information and accepts no responsibility for investment decisions made on the basis of this article. Readers should consult official company disclosures, conduct their own research and, where appropriate, seek advice from a licensed financial adviser. Any relevant financial interests held by the author or publisher in the securities mentioned are disclosed where applicable. This article was prepared with the assistance of AI tools and is based on the sources listed above.
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