October 25, 2026 | TickerRoast Markets Analysis
Every few months, the calendar lines up in a way that can reshape the market’s mood. This is one of those weeks. The Federal Reserve announces its decision on Wednesday afternoon, Microsoft and Alphabet report a few hours later, and Amazon follows on Thursday, all after a week in which the Nasdaq had its sharpest drop since June. Here is how I’m approaching it.
A Fed That Has Already Started Raising Rates
It is easy to forget how different the backdrop is this year. The Fed raised interest rates in September, its first increase since 2023, according to Reuters, as published by Kitco. Futures priced only about a 5% chance of another hike this week, but about 80% for the December meeting, the same report said, and many investors doubt the Fed would act a week before the November 3 midterm elections.
So for me, the decision itself matters less than Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference. With Brent crude above $116 a barrel on Friday, based on Yahoo Finance data, and inflation concerns tied to the Middle East conflict, any hint about December could move bond yields and, with them, the valuations of growth stocks. Walter Todd of Greenwood Capital told Reuters he would be watching for exactly that.
The $800 Billion Question
The real test, in my view, comes from the earnings. The largest cloud providers are expected to spend around $800 billion on capital investment this year, according to Reuters, and investors increasingly want proof that this spending is paying off. Meta’s results this week showed what happens when the answer is unconvincing: the stock fell 7% after its free cash flow turned negative.
| When | Event | What I’m looking for |
|---|---|---|
| Wednesday | Fed decision and Warsh press conference | Signals about a December hike |
| Wednesday, after the close | Microsoft and Alphabet earnings | Cloud growth vs. capital spending plans |
| Thursday, after the close | Amazon earnings | AWS growth and 2027 investment plans |
| During the week | Intel, Sandisk, Eli Lilly, Exxon, Chevron, Caterpillar | Chips, healthcare, energy and industrial demand |
| November 3 | U.S. midterm elections | Policy uncertainty heading into year-end |
Schedule based on Reuters reporting. What I’ll be reading most carefully is the relationship between cloud revenue growth and spending. If Microsoft Azure, Google Cloud and AWS show that demand is accelerating fast enough to justify their budgets, this week’s pullback could look like a pause. If spending keeps rising faster than revenue, the pressure we saw on chipmakers and AI cloud operators could spread. King Lip of BakerAvenue Wealth Management summed up the stakes to Reuters: earnings will show whether the tech pullback is an opportunity or the start of a deeper correction.
Where Tech Stocks Stand Going In
I use the Invesco QQQ Trust, which tracks the Nasdaq-100, as my gauge for large-cap tech. Based on Yahoo Finance data, it closed Friday at $704.40, about 5% lower over one month and about 7.7% below its 52-week high of $762.86. It sits below its 20-day and 50-day moving averages, around $735 and $726, with a 14-day RSI near 37. Short-term momentum is clearly weak.
The longer view is more reassuring. The fund remains above its 200-day moving average, near $677, and is still up about 15% this year. For me, the area between the current price and that 200-day line is where this week’s earnings will be judged: holding above it would keep the long-term uptrend intact, while a break below would signal that the market’s view of AI spending has changed more deeply.
Why Earnings Could Still Surprise
It is worth remembering that corporate profits remain very strong. Third-quarter earnings for S&P 500 companies are on track to grow more than 32% from a year earlier, according to LSEG data cited by Reuters, and the S&P 500 is still up about 12% in 2026. Nick Giorgi of Alpine Macro told Reuters that “there are a lot of balls in the air.” I agree, and that is precisely why I’ll be watching the details rather than the headlines when the numbers arrive on Wednesday evening.
Sources
- Wall St Week Ahead: Earnings flood, Fed meeting pose pivotal tests for rickety AI market rally (Reuters) — Reuters, via Kitco
- Nasdaq plunges 2.6% as AI spending fears spark tech selloff — Honolulu Star-Advertiser
Market data: Yahoo Finance, close of 2026-10-23. Charts generated by TickerRoast from this data.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only. It provides general financial and business analysis and does not constitute investment advice, a personal recommendation, a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security, or an offer to transact in any financial instrument. Information is based on publicly available sources as of October 25, 2026 and market data as of the 2026-10-23 close (Yahoo Finance). Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results; forecasts are uncertain and actual results may differ materially. Investing in shares involves risk, including the loss of capital. The publisher does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information and accepts no responsibility for investment decisions made on the basis of this article. Readers should consult official company disclosures, conduct their own research and, where appropriate, seek advice from a licensed financial adviser. Any relevant financial interests held by the author or publisher in the securities mentioned are disclosed where applicable. This article was prepared with the assistance of AI tools and is based on the sources listed above.
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- Meta Stock Falls 7% After Q3 Beat as AI Spending, Credit Worries Drag Nasdaq Lower
Anonymous reader poll, just for fun. Not investment advice.
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