November 4, 2026 | TickerRoast Markets Analysis
Wall Street wakes up to a Congress that is projected to change hands. Stock index futures are modestly lower after a rougher night, Japanese chip stocks took the brunt of the reaction in Asia, Treasury yields are slipping, and AMD is the standout mover after its report. Before the bell, Uber, CVS Health, McDonald’s and Novo Nordisk report, with Qualcomm, Arm and AppLovin after the close.
Chips Carried the Nasdaq While Apple Held Back the Dow
Tuesday’s session split along familiar lines. According to Yahoo Finance closing data, the S&P 500 rose 0.36% to 7,568.92 and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.83% to 25,372.01, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.38% to 51,786.72. Yahoo Finance’s live coverage credited the gains to a rebound in chip stocks after a turbulent stretch for the group, while Apple traded lower following the earnings report it released on Monday evening.
The rebound came from a low base. Yahoo Finance reported that the PHLX Semiconductor Index finished November 2 about 22% below its October 6 high, its second bear market since June, and below its 200-day moving average for a second straight session. One good day does not repair that picture, which is why the overnight reaction to AMD’s results and to the election matters as much as Tuesday’s close.
A Blue Wave Meets the AI Trade
The overnight story is political. According to CNBC’s live coverage, The Associated Press projects that Democrats will win both chambers of Congress, and the AP also projected that Democrat Gina Hinojosa defeated Republican incumbent Greg Abbott in the Texas governor’s race. Hinojosa has pledged a moratorium on data centers, which is why the result landed directly on AI-linked stocks. I look at the Texas angle in more detail in a separate article this morning.
Futures reacted, but less violently than the headlines might suggest. As of about 2:12 a.m. ET, CNBC reported S&P 500 futures down 0.21% and Nasdaq-100 futures down 0.30%, while Dow futures were up 29 points, or 0.06%, and noted that contracts were off their worst levels of the night. Yahoo Finance quotes taken a few minutes later showed S&P 500 futures at 7,575, down 0.29%, and Nasdaq futures at 28,194, down 0.39%. CNBC also reported that President Donald Trump told The Wall Street Journal, “I think we’ll work with the Democrats, and we’ll get along very well with them,” which may have helped calm the overnight session.
On the chart, the S&P 500 closed Tuesday at 7,569, below both its 20-day moving average near 7,706 and its 50-day average near 7,693, after pulling back from its October 6 high of 7,818.93, according to Yahoo Finance data. The 14-day RSI sits around 40, soft but far from oversold. That looks like a pause inside a six-month uptrend rather than a broken trend, and today’s open will show whether the election result pushes the index further below those two averages.
Tokyo Takes the Hit as Yields and Oil Edge Around
Asia absorbed the bulk of the AI-related selling. CNBC reported that Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 4.45% to its lowest level since May, with SoftBank Group down more than 8%, Disco down 10.19%, Advantest down more than 8% and Tokyo Electron down 7.04%. In Seoul, SK Hynix fell 5.08% and Samsung Electronics declined 3.87%, while TSMC slipped a more modest 1.09% in Taipei. European futures point lower too: CNBC cited Stoxx 50 futures down 0.35%, FTSE 100 futures down 0.64% and DAX futures down 0.46% ahead of the open.
Bonds are acting as a modest shelter. CNBC reported the 10-year Treasury yield at about 4.93% early Wednesday, after it closed near 4.95% on Tuesday according to Yahoo Finance data, with the 2-year yield around 4.60%. In commodities, Yahoo Finance quotes showed December WTI crude at about $96.60 a barrel, up roughly 0.5%, gold up about 2.3% at $4,029 an ounce and the VIX near 20.8. Brent was hovering around $104 on Tuesday, according to Yahoo Finance, as hopes of a ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran pulled prices back from their late-October highs.
AMD, Arista and Super Micro Lead the After-Hours Board
Earnings provided the counterweight to the election. According to CNBC’s after-hours movers, AMD jumped about 7% after adjusted earnings of $2.09 a share topped the LSEG consensus of $1.95, Arista Networks gained 12% on a fourth-quarter revenue outlook of $3.9 billion to $4.0 billion, and Super Micro Computer rose more than 9% after forecasting fiscal 2027 net sales of $72 billion to $82 billion. Block rallied more than 6% and Duolingo surged 11%, while Skyworks Solutions slumped about 16% on a weak first outlook as a combined company with Qorvo. I cover AMD, Block and Skyworks in separate articles today.
CNBC also reported, citing The Wall Street Journal, that CVS Health plans to split off its retail pharmacy business into a separate public company in the first half of 2028. That is a report based on people familiar with the matter, not a company announcement, and CVS reports its quarter this morning, which gives management an obvious venue to address it.
Uber, CVS and McDonald’s Before the Bell, Qualcomm and Arm After It
The calendar is heavy. According to Earnings Whispers, 545 companies are scheduled to report on Wednesday. Before the open, the list includes Uber Technologies, Datadog, Novo Nordisk, McDonald’s, CVS Health, GlobalFoundries, Kraft Heinz and Circle Internet Group. After the close, AppLovin, Qualcomm, Arm Holdings, MercadoLibre, Coherent, Fair Isaac, Snap and Figma are among the names on the schedule.
Qualcomm and Arm are the reports I will watch most closely. After Skyworks warned about softness in the Android market, Qualcomm’s handset commentary becomes the next read on smartphone demand, while Arm’s royalty and licensing numbers will add another data point to the AI infrastructure debate that the election has just reopened.
What the Rest of the Week Hinges On
Beyond earnings, the market’s next few sessions will likely be shaped by how quickly the remaining House races are called and by any early signals from Democratic leaders on data center permitting, energy and technology regulation. History offers some comfort: a CNBC analysis found the S&P 500 has risen in the year after each of the last 11 midterm elections from 1982 to 2022. But this cycle comes with an AI spending debate and chip stocks in a bear market, so I would not lean on averages to explain what happens next.
Sources
- Stock futures mixed as Democrats win big in midterms: Live updates — CNBC
- Stocks making the biggest moves after hours — CNBC
- Stock market today: Dow slips, S&P and Nasdaq gain as chip stocks rally — Yahoo Finance
- S&P 500 (^GSPC) quote and history — Yahoo Finance
- Earnings Calendar for Wednesday, November 4, 2026 — Earnings Whispers
- AMD Reports Third Quarter 2026 Financial Results — AMD
Market data: Yahoo Finance, close of 2026-11-03. Charts generated by TickerRoast from this data.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only. It provides general financial and business analysis and does not constitute investment advice, a personal recommendation, a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security, or an offer to transact in any financial instrument. Information is based on publicly available sources as of November 4, 2026 and market data as of the 2026-11-03 close (Yahoo Finance). Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results; forecasts are uncertain and actual results may differ materially. Investing in shares involves risk, including the loss of capital. The publisher does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information and accepts no responsibility for investment decisions made on the basis of this article. Readers should consult official company disclosures, conduct their own research and, where appropriate, seek advice from a licensed financial adviser. Any relevant financial interests held by the author or publisher in the securities mentioned are disclosed where applicable. This article was prepared with the assistance of AI tools and is based on the sources listed above.
Anonymous reader poll, just for fun. Not investment advice.
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