November 4, 2026 | TickerRoast Markets Analysis
Wall Street wakes up to a different Washington. Democrats have won control of the Senate and are on course to take the House, and stock index futures are lower across the board, with Nasdaq-100 contracts leading the decline. AMD and Arista Networks are the exceptions after strong reports last night, Tokyo fell almost 2.7% overnight, and Uber, CVS Health and McDonald’s report before the bell, with Qualcomm, Arm and AppLovin after it.
Update, 5:30 a.m. ET: The overnight picture has changed. NBC News now projects that Democrats have also won the House, and U.S. index futures have turned higher: according to Yahoo Finance quotes at about 5:20 a.m. ET, S&P 500 futures were up about 0.9%, Nasdaq-100 futures about 0.8% and Dow futures about 1.3%, while the dollar index was down about 0.5% and gold futures were up about 3%. The futures figures below reflect the 12:20 a.m. ET snapshot.
Chips Lifted the Nasdaq on Election Day
Tuesday’s session was a split one. According to Yahoo Finance closing data, the S&P 500 rose 0.36% to 7,568.92 and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.83% to 25,372.01, both snapping three-day losing streaks, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.38% to 51,786.72. StockTitan’s close-of-session wrap attributes the Dow’s decline largely to Apple, which fell 1.90% after its December-quarter margin forecast disappointed, while chipmakers carried the Nasdaq higher. The Russell 2000 added 0.23% to 2,812.45.
Bond yields moved the other way. The 10-year Treasury yield closed at about 4.95%, up from 4.89% on Monday, according to Yahoo Finance. I read that as a reminder that the rate backdrop has not improved: Fed Chair Kevin Warsh warned at last week’s press conference that “interest rates get in the cracks,” according to Fortune, pushing back on the idea that AI investment is immune to borrowing costs. That quote has been circulating again on Google Trends this week.
A Democratic Senate Changes the Futures Board
The overnight story is political. According to Yahoo News’ live coverage, Democrats secured the net gain of at least four seats they needed to retake the Senate, with flips in Ohio, North Carolina, Iowa, Kansas, South Carolina and Texas, while the House remained undecided early Wednesday with Democrats on course to win it. I cover the market implications in more detail in a separate article this morning.
Futures reacted with a broad but orderly decline. Yahoo Finance quotes at about 12:20 a.m. ET showed S&P 500 futures at 7,552, down about 0.6% from their prior settlement, Nasdaq-100 futures down about 0.8% at 28,083.50, Dow futures down about 0.35% at 51,714 and Russell 2000 futures down about 0.3%. The worry, as StockTitan relayed from CNBC on Tuesday evening, is that a large Democratic Senate majority could weigh on AI-infrastructure stocks if it brings more limits on data centers.
The chart shows the S&P 500 over the past six months with its moving averages, volume and RSI. Tuesday’s bounce left the index at 7,568.92, still below both its 20-day average near 7,706 and its 50-day average near 7,693, and about 3.2% under its October 6 record close of 7,818.93. The 14-day RSI sits near 39, weak but not oversold. With futures pointing to an open around 7,550, the index is set to start the day close to Monday’s 7,541 low, which makes the late-October lows the level I am watching.
AMD and Arista Rally After the Bell
The earnings news overnight was better than the political news, at least for AI hardware. AMD reported record third-quarter revenue of $13.4 billion, up 45%, with data center sales nearly doubling to $8.5 billion, according to its press release, and guided to about $17 billion for the fourth quarter. The stock last traded at $508.20 in the after-hours session, roughly 5% above its $483.90 close, according to Yahoo Finance. Arista Networks reported revenue up 58.5% to $3.66 billion, its fastest growth since its IPO, according to its earnings release filed with the SEC, and its shares last traded around $186 after hours, up about 9.5%. I analyze both reports in separate articles.
Other after-hours moves were sharper. According to StockTitan, Amdocs fell about 43% after forecasting a revenue decline of 14.3% to 17.9% in its new fiscal year and citing a dispute with T-Mobile, Skyworks Solutions dropped about 17% on its December-quarter guidance, and Duolingo rose about 12% after daily active users grew 29%. Super Micro Computer gained about 8%.
Tokyo and Seoul Slide, Oil Holds Near $104
Asia traded lower where technology weighs most. Yahoo Finance data show Japan’s Nikkei 225 down about 2.7% at 61,398 as it reopened after Tuesday’s holiday, South Korea’s Kospi down about 1.2% at 5,581.53 and the Shanghai Composite slightly lower at 3,600.62, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng was the exception, up about 0.4% at 23,631.61. In China, the overnight talking point was a Shenzhen debut: Crown New Materials Technology soared as much as 787% on Tuesday as Beijing reportedly moved to restrict new IPO filings, a story I cover separately.
Commodities are calm by recent standards. Brent crude traded around $104.08 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate around $96.26, both slightly higher overnight, according to Yahoo Finance, after Brent settled 1.12% lower at $103.60 on Tuesday, per StockTitan. Gold futures rose about 0.6% to $3,965.60 an ounce, the dollar index slipped about 0.35% to 101.51, and bitcoin traded near $77,350.
Uber, CVS and McDonald’s Before the Open
Today is one of the busiest days of the earnings season. Earnings Whispers counts 689 companies scheduled to report, 276 before the open and 413 after the close. According to StockTitan’s weekly earnings calendar, the morning slate includes Uber, CVS Health, McDonald’s, Novo Nordisk, Datadog, Emerson, Grainger, Cencora and Toyota. CVS is especially exposed to today’s political news, because a Democratic House could push to reverse Medicaid and Medicare cuts, an agenda Investopedia flagged on Tuesday citing The New York Times.
After the bell, the focus shifts back to chips and software, with Qualcomm, Arm Holdings, AppLovin, MercadoLibre, McKesson, Motorola Solutions, Edwards Lifesciences and Coherent all on the StockTitan calendar. After AMD’s numbers, Arm and Qualcomm will be judged on whether AI demand is spreading beyond data center GPUs into CPUs and devices.
The Rest of the Week
Thursday brings ConocoPhillips, Duke Energy, Southern Company, Cigna and Sony before the open, then Airbnb, Cloudflare, Atlassian, Lumentum and Monster Beverage after the close, according to StockTitan. The government’s October jobs report follows on Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET. With the Fed’s benchmark rate at 3.75% to 4% and futures markets pricing a possible December hike, as Motley Fool noted this week citing CME FedWatch, that report may matter as much for stocks as the election result.
Sources
- S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow, futures, Asian indexes and commodities quotes — Yahoo Finance
- The Stock Market Today, November 3, 2026 — StockTitan
- Midterms 2026 election results and live updates — Yahoo News
- AMD Reports Third Quarter 2026 Financial Results — AMD
- Arista Networks Q3 2026 earnings release (Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1) — SEC EDGAR
- Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s warning to AI investors — Fortune
- Earnings calendar for November 4, 2026 — Earnings Whispers
- Earnings Calendar for the Week of November 2, 2026 — StockTitan
- Markets News, Nov. 3, 2026 — Investopedia via Yahoo Finance
- Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Just Drove a Dagger Through Wall Street’s AI-Driven Rally — The Motley Fool
- Democrats win control of the House of Representatives with a vow to combat Trump — NBC News
Market data: Yahoo Finance, close of 2026-11-03. Charts generated by TickerRoast from this data.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only. It provides general financial and business analysis and does not constitute investment advice, a personal recommendation, a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security, or an offer to transact in any financial instrument. Information is based on publicly available sources as of November 4, 2026 and market data as of the 2026-11-03 close (Yahoo Finance). Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results; forecasts are uncertain and actual results may differ materially. Investing in shares involves risk, including the loss of capital. The publisher does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information and accepts no responsibility for investment decisions made on the basis of this article. Readers should consult official company disclosures, conduct their own research and, where appropriate, seek advice from a licensed financial adviser. Any relevant financial interests held by the author or publisher in the securities mentioned are disclosed where applicable. This article was prepared with the assistance of AI tools and is based on the sources listed above.
Anonymous reader poll, just for fun. Not investment advice.
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