October 26, 2026 | TickerRoast Markets Analysis
Good morning. U.S. stock futures are pointing slightly higher as a new week begins, helped by a pullback in oil after President Trump said there would be no strike on Iran on Sunday. The overnight session’s real story, though, came from Brazil, where Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s runoff victory triggered a sharp sell-off in Brazilian assets. And the week ahead is one of the busiest of the year.
Futures Rise as the Iran Risk Premium Fades
Asked whether the United States would strike Iran on Sunday, Trump answered that there would not be a strike that day, according to Stocktwits, via TradingView. Late Sunday, Dow futures were up about 0.2%, S&P 500 futures about 0.1% and Nasdaq-100 futures roughly flat, the same report said. Early Monday in Europe, S&P 500 futures were trading around 7,679, about 0.25% above Friday’s settlement, based on Yahoo Finance data.
I see the move in oil as the more telling signal. Brent crude, which had closed Friday at $116.72 after a weekly gain of more than 6%, based on Yahoo Finance data, fell back toward $114.85 late Sunday according to Stocktwits, and was trading near $109.50 early Monday in Europe. The 10-year Treasury yield slipped below 5%, to about 4.97%. The pause may prove temporary: the market is still pricing a conflict that has lasted since February.
Friday’s Close and Where the S&P 500 Stands
| Index | Friday close (Oct. 23) | Change | Week |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 52,215.16 | -1.23% | +0.41% |
| S&P 500 | 7,623.68 | -0.52% | -0.47% |
| Nasdaq Composite | 25,955.34 | -0.21% | -0.71% |
Closing figures are based on Yahoo Finance data. On the chart, the S&P 500 has slipped below its 20-day and 50-day moving averages, around 7,727 and 7,700, while holding well above its 200-day average near 7,291. The index is about 2.8% below its 52-week high and still up roughly 11% this year. That is a market in a pause, not a breakdown, and this week’s events will decide which way it resolves.
Brazil: A Sharp Overnight Repricing
Lula won Sunday’s runoff with about 51.8% of the vote against Senator Flávio Bolsonaro’s 48.2%, according to Business Today, citing the electoral court. The iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ) fell more than 18% in overnight trading, Stocktwits reported, and Bolsonaro has called for the result to be annulled. I cover what is behind the move, and why it may be less one-sided than it looks, in a separate article in our Markets section.
Elsewhere Overnight
Shares of AI cloud operators CoreWeave, Nebius and IREN slipped about 2% to 3% overnight after Elon Musk predicted a wave of failures among “neoclouds,” which I discuss in our Tech & Analysis section. In Asia, markets opened mixed on Monday: South Korea’s Kospi, Japan’s Nikkei 225 and China’s Shanghai Composite traded lower, while Australian stocks were higher at the open, according to Stocktwits.
Today’s Calendar
Verizon kicks off the week’s earnings before the open. The company said it would post its third-quarter results at 7:00 a.m. ET, with a webcast at 8:30 a.m. ET, according to Finviz. After Friday’s sell-off in AT&T and T-Mobile on reports that SpaceX is seeking cell sites for a fourth carrier, I will be listening closely to what Verizon’s management says about competition.
A Week That Could Set the Tone Into Year-End
The Federal Reserve begins its two-day meeting on Tuesday and announces its decision on Wednesday, with markets broadly expecting rates to stay on hold. Futures implied about an 80% chance of a hike in December, according to Reuters, via Kitco. A few hours after the Fed, Alphabet and Microsoft report, followed by Amazon on Thursday, with Visa, Boeing and Coca-Cola also on the calendar this week. With hyperscalers’ capital spending expected to total about $800 billion this year, Reuters noted, their guidance on AI investment is the number I expect markets to trade on.
Sources
- Nasdaq Futures Slip Amid Tech Selloff While S&P 500, Dow Edge Higher Ahead Of Crucial Earnings Week — Stocktwits, via TradingView
- Brazil markets face sell-off as Lula stuns investors with election win — Business Today
- Verizon to Report Third-Quarter Earnings October 26, 2026 — Finviz
- Wall St Week Ahead: Earnings flood, Fed meeting pose pivotal tests for rickety AI market rally (Reuters) — Reuters, via Kitco
Market data: Yahoo Finance, close of 2026-10-23. Charts generated by TickerRoast from this data.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only. It provides general financial and business analysis and does not constitute investment advice, a personal recommendation, a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security, or an offer to transact in any financial instrument. Information is based on publicly available sources as of October 26, 2026 and market data as of the 2026-10-23 close (Yahoo Finance). Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results; forecasts are uncertain and actual results may differ materially. Investing in shares involves risk, including the loss of capital. The publisher does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information and accepts no responsibility for investment decisions made on the basis of this article. Readers should consult official company disclosures, conduct their own research and, where appropriate, seek advice from a licensed financial adviser. Any relevant financial interests held by the author or publisher in the securities mentioned are disclosed where applicable. This article was prepared with the assistance of AI tools and is based on the sources listed above.
Anonymous reader poll, just for fun. Not investment advice.
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