November 3, 2026 | TickerRoast Markets Analysis
Election results are dominating Google searches in the U.S. this afternoon, and Wall Street is treating the vote calmly so far. Stocks were higher in early afternoon trading, led by a rebound in the chip shares that crashed on Friday, while the president spent the morning posting endorsements on Truth Social and the prediction markets that let Americans trade on the outcome kept growing.
The Market at Midday
Around 1:20 p.m. Eastern, the S&P 500 was up about 0.6%, the Nasdaq Composite about 1.1% and the Russell 2000 about 0.7%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down about 0.2%, based on Yahoo Finance data. The PHLX Semiconductor Index was up about 2.9%, a partial recovery after Friday’s roughly 9% intraday drop. The VIX volatility index eased to about 20.5, still above the levels near 16 seen before last week’s tech sell-off, and the 10-year Treasury yield rose to about 4.95%.
I read the calm as a sign that investors are waiting for results rather than positioning ahead of them. Polls are still open across most of the country, and control of Congress shapes the outlook for spending, taxes and regulation, so the bigger reaction is more likely once results arrive tonight and Wednesday.
What Trump Posted This Morning
President Trump used his Truth Social account on Tuesday morning to publish a long series of state-by-state endorsement lists, each beginning with a call to “get out and vote” for the Republican candidates he backs. Shortly after noon Eastern, he wrote that Guam had an early call for a Republican victory in the governor’s race. None of the posts I reviewed from Tuesday addressed tariffs, interest rates or the stock market directly, which matters for traders, because his posts on those topics have moved markets in the past.
Elon Musk’s account on X also shared political content on Tuesday, including a repost urging people to vote Republican in Michigan’s Senate race, alongside posts promoting his company’s Grok Bot assistant.
Prediction Markets Have Their Biggest Election Yet
Kalshi, the largest U.S. regulated prediction market, is among today’s trending searches. A Kalshi spokesperson told CNN in late October that nearly $1.1 billion had traded on its midterm-related markets, with more than $340 million on Polymarket, and CNN noted that trading volume is not the same as the amount wagered on a given race. Variety has since put total election betting at $1.9 billion. Regulators have pledged to police insider trading around the vote, and, according to reports, Kalshi has suspended several candidates for betting on their own races.
For investors, the growth of these markets is a story in itself: election odds now trade in real time next to stocks and Treasuries, and tonight will be a large test of how quickly prices on those platforms move as results come in.
Sources
- Index and sector quotes (Nov. 3, 2026, intraday) — Yahoo Finance
- Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) posts, Nov. 3, 2026 — Truth Social
- Elon Musk (@elonmusk) posts, Nov. 3, 2026 — X
- More than $1.4 billion has been traded on prediction markets for the 2026 midterms — CNN
- Midterm Elections 2026 Betting Odds: $1.9 Billion Wagered on Elections — Variety
Market data: Yahoo Finance, close of 2026-11-03. Charts generated by TickerRoast from this data.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only. It provides general financial and business analysis and does not constitute investment advice, a personal recommendation, a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security, or an offer to transact in any financial instrument. Information is based on publicly available sources as of November 3, 2026 and market data as of the 2026-11-03 close (Yahoo Finance). Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results; forecasts are uncertain and actual results may differ materially. Investing in shares involves risk, including the loss of capital. The publisher does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information and accepts no responsibility for investment decisions made on the basis of this article. Readers should consult official company disclosures, conduct their own research and, where appropriate, seek advice from a licensed financial adviser. Any relevant financial interests held by the author or publisher in the securities mentioned are disclosed where applicable. This article was prepared with the assistance of AI tools and is based on the sources listed above.
Anonymous reader poll, just for fun. Not investment advice.
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